Real Estate Information

Expert Quotes on the 2024 Housing Market Forecast

If you’re thinking about buying or selling a home soon, you probably want to know what you can expect from the housing market in 2024. In 2023, higher mortgage rates, confusion over home price headlines, and a lack of homes for sale created some challenges for buyers and sellers looking to make a move. But what’s on the horizon for the new year?

The good news is, many experts are optimistic we’ve turned a corner and are headed in a positive direction.

Mortgage Rates Expected To Ease

Recently, mortgage rates have started to come back down. This has offered hope to buyers dealing with affordability challenges. Mark Fleming, Chief Economist at First American, explains how they may continue to drop:

“Mortgage rates have already retreated from recent peaks near 8 percent and may fall further . . .”

Jessica Lautz, Deputy Chief Economist at the National Association of Realtors (NAR), says:

“For home buyers who are taking on a mortgage to purchase a home and have been wary of the autumn rise in mortgage rates, the market is turning more favorable, and there should be optimism entering 2024 for a better market.”

The Supply of Homes for Sale May Grow

As rates ease, activity in the housing market should pick up because more buyers and sellers who had been holding off will jump back into action. If more sellers list, the supply of homes for sale will grow – a trend we’ve already started to see this year. Lisa Sturtevant, Chief Economist at Bright MLS, says:

“Supply will loosen up in 2024. Even homeowners who have been characterized as being ‘locked in’ to low rates will increasingly find that changing family and financial circumstances will lead to more moves and more new listings over the course of the year, particularly as rates move closer to 6.5%.”

Home Price Growth Should Moderate

And mortgage rates pulling back isn’t the only positive sign for affordability. Home price growth is expected to moderate too, as inventory improves but is still low overall. As the Home Price Expectation Survey (HPES) from Fannie Mae, a survey of over 100 economists, investment strategists, and housing market analysts, says:

“On average, the panel anticipates home price growth to clock in at 5.9% in 2023, to be followed by slower growth in 2024 and 2025 of 2.4 percent and 2.7 percent, respectively.” 

To wrap it up, experts project 2024 will be a better year for the housing market. So, if you’re thinking about making a move next year, know that early signs show we’re turning a corner. As Mike Simonsen, President and Founder of Altos Research, puts it:

“We’re going into 2024 with slight home-price gains, somewhat easing inventory constraints, slightly increasing transaction volume . . . All in all, things are looking up for the U.S. housing market in 2024.”

Bottom Line

Experts are optimistic about what 2024 holds for the housing market. If you’re looking to buy or sell a home in the new year, the best way to ensure you’re up to date on the latest forecasts is to partner with a trusted real estate agent. Let’s connect.

Why Now Is Still a Great Time To Sell Your House

If you were worried buyer demand disappeared when mortgage rates went up, the data shows there are plenty of interested buyers still out there. The housing market isn't as frenzied as it was during the ‘unicorn’ years when buyer demand was through the roof, mortgage rates were historically low, and home values rose like we’ve never seen before. But that doesn’t mean the market is at a standstill.

Nationally, demand is still high compared to the last normal years in the housing market and plenty of buyers are making moves right now. Here’s the data to prove it.

Showing Traffic Is Up

The ShowingTime Showing Index is a measure of how frequently buyers are touring homes. The graph below uses that index to show buyer activity over the past eight Octobers:

In the graph, the ‘unicorn’ years are shown in pink. You can see demand has dipped some since then. That’s in response to higher mortgage rates. But, when you compare 2023 to the blue bars on the left that represent the last normal years in the market (2018-2019), you can tell buyers are still more active than the norm.

But showing traffic isn’t the only way to see buyer demand is still high. The number of offers other sellers are getting and the average days homes are on the market tell the same story.

Sellers Are Still Seeing Multiple Offers

According to the latest data from the National Association of Realtors (NAR), sellers are receiving an average of 2.5 offers on their houses. Let’s look at how that compares to recent years (see graph below):

It’s true that’s fewer than the number of offers sellers were receiving during the ‘unicorn’ years (shown in pink). But compared to last year, the number is up slightly. And it’s higher than it was in the more normal, pre-‘unicorn’ years in the housing market too.

Homes Priced Right Are Selling Fast

And it’s not just that sellers are still typically getting multiple offers more than the norm, they’re also seeing their homes sell fast. That’s a direct result of strong buyer demand. According to Zillow:

“. . . low inventory levels are spurring surprisingly strong competition . . . demand has remained resilient, and attractive, appropriately priced listings are moving quickly.”

To help showcase that homes for sale are still going quickly, let’s look at data from NAR on the median days on market for this same time of year from 2018 through now (see graph below):

As the graph shows, this year homes are sitting on the market only slightly longer than they were during the frenzy of the ‘unicorn’ years. And compared to the last normal years in the market, homes are still selling much faster than they did back then. That’s good news for sellers because it means there are eager buyers out there right now.

Bottom Line

You haven't missed your chance to sell at a time when sellers are receiving multiple offers, and homes are selling fast. When you’re ready to sell your house, let’s connect to get the ball rolling.

Rhododendron CHALET

$380,000

Opportunity knocks at this secluded chalet at the end of the road in Rhododendron, Located in the Woodlands neighborhood, it's just a 15 minute drive to Ski Bowl and 30 to Timberline and Meadows! The home features two bedrooms and bonus loft with high beamed vaulted ceilings and an open floor plan with just over 1100 sq. ft. There's a recently installed composition roof and the seller is replacing a skylight. The kitchen has everything you'll need plus tile accents by local artist Dave Enna. The home has an attached one car garage for car or mountain toys! The living room has an EPA approved wood stove to warm up your toes with a floor to ceiling stone hearth. Lots of windows bring natural light into the living and dining area. Laundry hook-up is in the bathroom. The back deck looks over the fire pit and creek. There's a wood shed and attached shed for tools. After a day of skiing or hiking you can walk to the Skyway for local barbecue and live music! The Mt. Hood National Forest is close by and the Zig Zag River is only one block away. The chalet needs a little TLC but is ready for occupancy.

If Your House Hasn’t Sold Yet, It May Be Overpriced

Has your house been sitting on the market a while without selling? If so, you should know that’s pretty unusual, especially right now. That’s because the supply of homes available for sale is still far lower than what we’d see in a normal year. That means buyers have fewer options than they usually would, so your house should be an oasis in an inventory desert.

So, if homebuyers have limited choices and your house still hasn’t sold, there’s a reason why. Let’s break one potential sticking point that may be turning buyers away: your asking price.

Especially with today’s higher mortgage rates already putting a stretch on their budget, buyers are being a bit more sensitive about price. As a recent article from the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) says:

“If you are serious about selling your home now, don’t get greedy with the asking price. This is still a seller’s home market as there simply aren’t enough affordable homes for sale in many parts of the country. But with average 30-year mortgage rates above 6%, buyers are much more price-sensitive than they were a year ago.”

Why Setting the Right Price Matters

While you want to maximize the return on your investment when you sell your house, you also need to be realistic based on current market conditions. The simple truth is your house is only going to sell for what people are willing to pay right now.

This can be a hard thing to accept. Especially since emotions can run high during the selling process, which only complicates matters more. After all, you may have lived in this house for years, so it’s only natural you’re emotionally tied to it – and those heartstrings can make it harder to be objective. 

But it’s important to acknowledge that a bigger-than-expected price tag deters buyers and may make them dismiss your house as a possibility before even seeing it. And if no one’s looking at it, how will it sell?

If you want to get your house sold, you’ll need to do something to spark interest in your home again. That’s where a local real estate agent comes in. They’ll help use data to find out if it’s priced too high for your local market. They balance the value of homes in your neighborhood, current market trends and buyer demand, the condition of your house, and more to find the right price for your house, so you can close this chapter and start your next one.

Bottom Line

While it’s true there aren’t that many homes available for sale right now, your home’s asking price still matters. And, if it’s not selling, it may be priced too high. 

The Surprising Trend in the Number of Homes Coming onto the Market

If you're thinking about moving, it's important to know what's happening in the housing market. Here's an update on the supply of homes currently for sale. Whether you're buying or selling, the number of homes in your area is something you should pay attention to.

In the housing market, there are regular patterns that happen every year, called seasonality. Spring is the peak homebuying season and also when the most homes are typically listed for sale (homes coming onto the market are known in the industry as new listings). In the second half of each year, the number of new listings typically decreases as the pace of sales slows down.

The graph below uses data from Realtor.com to provide a visual of this seasonality. It shows how this year (the black line) is breaking from the norm (see graph below):

Looking at this graph, three things become clear:

• 2017-2019 (the blue and gray lines) follow the same general pattern. These years were very typical in the housing market and their lines on the graph show normal, seasonal trends.
• Starting in 2020, the data broke from the normal trend. The big drop down in 2020 (the orange line) signals when the pandemic hit and many sellers paused their plans to move. 2021 (the green line) and 2022 (the red line) follow the normal trend a bit more, but still are abnormal in their own ways.
• This year (the black line) is truly unique. The steep drop off in new listings that usually occurs this time of year hasn’t happened. If 2023 followed the norm, the line representing this year would look more like the dotted black line. Instead, what’s happening is the number of new listings is stabilizing. And, there are even more new listings coming to the market this year compared to the same time last year.

What Does This Mean for You?

• For buyers, new listings stabilizing is a positive sign. It means you have a more steady stream of options coming onto the market and more choices for your next home than you would have at the same time last year. This opens up possibilities and allows you to explore a variety of homes that suit your needs.
• For sellers, while new listings are breaking seasonal norms, inventory is still well below where it was before the pandemic. If you look again at the graph, you’ll see the black line for this year is still lower than normal, meaning inventory isn’t going up dramatically and prices aren’t heading for a crash. And with less competition from other sellers than you’d see in a more typical year, your house has a better chance to be in the spotlight and attract eager buyers.

Bottom Line

Whether you're on the hunt for your next home or thinking of selling, now might just be the perfect time to make your move. If you have questions or concerns about the availability of homes in our local area, let’s connect.

Why You Should Use a Real Estate Agent When You Buy a Home

If you’ve recently decided you’re ready to become a homeowner, chances are you’re trying to figure out what to do first. It can feel a bit overwhelming to know where to start, but the good news is you don’t have to navigate all of that alone.

When it comes to buying a home, there are a lot of moving pieces. And that’s especially true in today’s housing market. The number of homes for sale is still low, and home prices and mortgage rates are still high. That combination can be tricky if you don’t have reliable expertise and a trusted advisor on your side. That’s why the best place to start is connecting with a local real estate agent.

Agents Are the #1 Most Useful Source in the Buying Process

The latest annual report from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) finds recent homebuyers agree the #1 most useful source of information they had in the home buying process was a real estate agent. Let’s break down why.

How an Agent Helps When You Buy a Home

When you think about a real estate agent, you may think of someone taking you on home showings and putting together the paperwork, but a great agent does so much more than that. It’s not just being the facilitator for your purchase, it’s being your guide through every step.

The visual below shows some examples from that same NAR release of the many ways an agent adds value. It includes the percentage of homebuyers in that report who highlighted each of these benefits:

Here’s a bit more context on how the survey results noted an agent continually helps buyers in these situations:

• Helped Buyer’s Understand the Process: Do you know the difference between an inspection and an appraisal, what each report tells you, and why they’re both important? Or that there are things you shouldn’t do after applying for a mortgage, like buying appliances or furniture? An agent knows all of these best practices and will share them with you along the way, so you don’t miss any key steps by the time you get to the closing table.
• Pointed Out Unnoticed Features or Faults with the Home: An agent also has a lot of experience evaluating homes. They’ve truly seen it all. They’ll be able to pinpoint some things you may not have noticed about the home that could help inform your decision or at least what repairs you ask for.
• Provided a Better List of Service Providers: In a real estate transaction, there are a lot of people involved. An agent has experience working with various professionals in your area, like home inspectors, and can help connect you with the pros you need for a successful experience.
• Negotiated Better Contract Terms and Price: Did something pop up in the home inspection or with the appraisal? An agent will help you re-negotiate as needed to get the best terms and price possible for you, so you feel confident with your big purchase.
• Improved Buyer’s Knowledge of the Search Area: Moving to a new town and you’re not familiar with the area, or you’re staying nearby, but don’t know which neighborhoods are most affordable? Either way, an agent knows the local area like the back of their hand and can help you find the perfect location for your needs.
• Expanded Buyer’s Search Area: And if you’re not finding anything you’re interested in within your initial search radius, an agent will know other neighborhoods nearby you should consider based on what you like, what amenities you want, and more.

Bottom Line

If you’re looking to buy a home, don’t forget about the many ways an agent is essential to that process. Any hurdle that pops up, a negotiation that needs to take place, and more, your agent will know how to handle it while they make sure to minimize your stress along the way. Let’s connect to tackle this together.

Here is the latest from RMLS stats for the Mt. Hood area sales for November. Although there were only ten closed sales, four of these were in Government Camp upping the average sales price listed below to $766,800! One of the sales was over two million! Marketing time is increasing to 79 days. 

How To Turn Homeownership into a Side Hustle

Does the rising cost of just about everything these days make your dream of owning your own home feel less within reach? According to Bankrate, many people are seeking additional income through side hustles, possibly to cope with those increasing expenses and save for a home. This trend is particularly popular with younger individuals who may be dealing with student loan debt (see graph below):

Here are two strategies that can not only make homeownership more affordable in the short term, but turn it into a lucrative side hustle that can pay off down the road.

Transforming the Challenge of a Fixer-Upper into an Opportunity

One thing you could do to help you break into homeownership is consider purchasing a fixer-upper. That’s a home that may be a bit less appealing and as a result has lingered on the market longer than normal. According to a recent article from U.S. News:

“The current state of the housing market may have you expanding your options to try to find a home that you can afford. A fixer-upper that needs some updating and a little love can feel like a welcome alternative to move-in ready houses that go off the market before you can even take a tour.”

By opting for a home that requires some work, you may see two big benefits. For starters, you may find it’s easier to find a home because you’re not looking for that perfect option. Plus, it may also help you enter the housing market at a lower price point. This strategy provides a more affordable way to become a homeowner while also offering the potential for future profits.

Yes, the home may need a little elbow grease, but investing time and effort into gradually enhancing your house not only makes it a home but also increases its future market value. So, while you enjoy the satisfaction of turning a house into a home, you're also building equity that can be unlocked when it's time to sell.

Renting Out a Portion of Your Home To Make It More Affordable

Another savvy strategy is to purchase a home with the upfront intention of renting out a portion of it. According to a recent press release from Zillow, renting out a part of their home is already very important for most young homebuyers (see graph below):

This approach serves a strong purpose. As Manny Garcia, Senior Population Scientist at Zillow, says:

“For those first-time buyers navigating the ‘side hustle culture,’ where a regular 9-to-5 might not quite cut it for homeownership dreams, rental income can step in to help . . .”

Basically, it can help you afford your monthly mortgage payments. So if you’re open to it, renting out a portion of your home not only helps with affordability, but it also positions you as an investor and turns your home into a source of income.

Bottom Line

In the face of today’s affordability challenges, both of these strategies offer more attainable paths to homeownership, especially for younger buyers. If you want to discuss these options and see how they might play out for you in our local market, let’s connect.

Press release from the Mt. Hood National Forest

Climbing permit required above 9,500 ft. starting January 1; Funds to support climber services and safety   Beginning January 1, 2024, Mt. Hood climbers traveling above 9,500 ft. elevation will need a climbing permit. The Mt. Hood Climbing Permit will be available for purchase as a single trip 3-day pass for $20, or an annual pass for $50. Permit fees will fund additional climbing rangers, climbing safety information, and natural resources protection.   Why do we need a climbing permit? Mt. Hood’s popularity as a climbing destination has resulted in public health and safety issues, including increased technical search and rescue operations and human waste in sensitive ecosystems. The Mt. Hood climbing ranger program needs financial support to help manage and address these issues. Many peaks in the Cascades Range already have a required climbing permit fee, including Mt. Rainier, Mount St. Helens, Mt. Adams, and Mt. Shasta. Permit fees help the Forest Service and National Park Service manage climbing opportunities for the benefit of the public.   Who needs a climbing permit? Beginning January 1, 2024, a climbing permit will be required for anyone traveling above 9,500 ft. elevation. Timberline Trail, forest trailheads, and all of the ski areas on Mt. Hood are below this elevation and don't require a climbing permit. There is no limit on the number of climbing permits issued.   How does the climbing permit work? How do I buy a permit? The Forest will offer a single trip 3-day permit and an annual permit. Single trip climbers will select a 3-day window for their climbing permit to allow for climbing in safer conditions if one day of the window has poor conditions. Single trip 3-day permits are $20. Annual permits are $50 and are good for 12 months from the date of purchase. Permits will be for sale on www.recreation.gov starting January 1, 2024.  Climbers will be able to purchase permits online up to the start of their climb (no advance reservations required). You can save a digital pass to your mobile device or print a copy and bring it with you. 9,500 ft. is well above all of the ski areas and the Timberline Trail. A climbing permit will only be required for those traveling above 9,500 ft. elevation. On the South Climbing Route, 9,500 ft. is roughly at the top of Triangle Moraine.        What should new climbers know before attempting to summit Mt. Hood? Every route on Mt. Hood is a technical climb requiring appropriate experience and equipment. Mt. Hood is not an appropriate first peak for those new to alpine climbing. New climbers should consider a less technical peak or a guided trip on Mt. Hood. Pre-trip planning and preparation is essential for any climb on Mt. Hood. This is not a mountain you can just “show up” and hike to the summit. Additional climber information is available on the Mt. Hood National Forest and Portland Mountain Rescue websites.   Where will the permit money go? Permit fees will directly fund the Mt. Hood climbing program. Among other improvements, permit fees will be used to: Hire additional climbing rangers to increase climbing ranger patrol along popular routes. Increase climbing conditions reports & other public climbing condition information. Improve climber safety education. Reduce human impacts on the natural landscape.     Sample annual climbing permit   Get more info!   Thinking of climbing Mt. Hood in 2024? Visit our website to get more information: www.fs.usda.gov/goto/mthood/climbing   Mt. Hood National Forest | https://www.fs.usda.gov/mthood/

Experts Project Home Prices Will Rise over the Next 5 Years

Even with so much data showing home prices are actually rising in most of the country, there are still a lot of people who worry there will be another price crash in the immediate future. In fact, a recent survey from Fannie Mae shows that 23% of consumers think prices will fall over the next 12 months. That’s nearly one in four people who are dealing with that fear – maybe you’re one of them.

To help ease that concern, here’s what the experts say will happen with home prices not just next year, but over the next five years.

Experts Project Ongoing Appreciation

While seeing a small handful of expert opinions may not be enough to change your mind, hopefully, a larger group of experts will reassure you. Here’s that larger group.

The Home Price Expectation Survey (HPES) from Pulsenomics is a great resource to show what experts forecast for home prices over a five-year period. It includes projections from over 100 economists, investment strategists, and housing market analysts. And the results from the latest quarterly release show home prices are expected to go up every year through 2027 (see graph below):

And while the projected increase in 2024 isn’t as large as 2023, remember home price appreciation is cumulative. In other words, if these experts are correct after your home’s value rises by 3.32% this year, it should go up by another 2.17% next year.

If you’re worried home prices are going to fall, here’s the big takeaway. Even though prices vary by local area, experts project they’ll continue to rise across the country for years to come at a pace that’s more normal for the market.

What Does This Mean for You?

If you’re not convinced yet, maybe these numbers will get your attention. They show how a typical home’s value could change over the next few years using the expert projections from the HPES. Check out the graph below:

In this example, let’s say you bought a $400,000 home at the beginning of this year. If you factor in the forecast from the HPES, you could potentially accumulate more than $71,000 in household wealth over the next five years.

Bottom Line

If you’re someone who’s worried home prices are going to fall, rest assured a lot of experts say it’s just the opposite – nationally, home prices will continue to climb not just next year, but for years to come. If you have any questions or concerns about what’s next for home prices in our local area, let’s connect.