A Rise in Foreclosures and Bankruptcies
Sunday, November 5, 2023
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Mt. Hood Real Estate Blog
Liz Warren
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The Perks of Selling Your House When Inventory Is Low
Tuesday, October 24, 2023
The Perks of Selling Your House When Inventory Is Low
When it comes to selling your house, you’re probably trying to juggle the current market conditions and your own needs as you plan your move.
One thing that may be working in your favor is how few homes there are for sale right now. Here’s what you need to know about the current inventory situation and what it means for you.
The Supply of Homes for Sale Is Far Below the Norm
When you’re selling something, it helps if what you’re selling is in demand, but is also in low supply. Why? That makes it even more desirable since there’s not enough to go around. That’s exactly what’s happening in the housing market today. There are more buyers looking to buy than there are homes for sale.
To tell the story of just how low inventory is, here’s the latest information on active listings, or homes available for sale. The graph below uses data from Realtor.com to show how many active listings there were in September of this year compared to what’s more typical in the market.
As you can see in the graph, if you look at the last normal years for the market (shown in the blue bars) versus the latest numbers for this year (shown in the red bar), it’s clear inventory is still far lower than the norm.
Currently our Mt. Hood inventory for single family homes and condos is at 26! Nearly a third of those properties are over a million dollars!
What That Means for You
Buyers have fewer choices now than they did in more typical years. And that’s why you could still see some great perks if you sell today. Because there aren’t enough homes to go around, homes that are priced right are still selling fast and the average seller is getting multiple offers from eager buyers. Based on the latest data from the Confidence Index from the National Association of Realtors (NAR):
- 69% of homes sold in less than a month.
- 2.6 offers: the average number of offers on recently sold homes.
An article from Realtor.com also explains how the limited number of houses for sale benefits you if you’re selling:
“. . . homes spent two weeks less on the market this past month than they did in the average September from 2017 to 2019 . . . as still-limited supply spurs homebuyers to act quickly . . .”
Bottom Line
Because the supply of homes for sale is so low, buyers desperately want more options – and your house may be just what they’re looking for. Let’s connect to get your house listed at the right price for today’s market. You could still see it sell quickly and potentially get multiple offers.
Home Price Growth is Returning to Normal
Friday, October 20, 2023
Home Price Growth Is Returning to Normal
Some Highlights
- If you're wondering what’s happening with home prices, know they’re still rising, just at a slower pace – and that’s perfectly normal for this time of year.
- Based on typical seasonality in the market, prices go up most in the spring during the peak buying season, and then price growth slows down as the year goes on.
- Home prices aren’t falling. They’re just rising slower and going back to normal seasonal trends. That’s a good thing. If you're curious about prices in our area, let’s connect.
Latest Expert Forecasts for Mt. Hood Home Prices in 2023
Wednesday, October 11, 2023
The Latest Expert Forecasts for Home Prices in 2023
Are you thinking about making a move? If so, all the speculation that home prices would crash this year may have you feeling a bit on edge about your decision. Let the data and the experts reassure you. Prices aren’t in a downward spiral and will actually finish the year strong.
Even though you may have heard talk that prices would drop 5, 10, or even 20% this year, that hasn’t happened. The big reason why is the supply of homes for sale is too low. There are just more buyers looking to buy than homes available, and that’s kept prices from falling.
To prove this year wasn’t a bust for home prices, let’s look at the latest 2023 forecast from a number of experts.
Most Experts Project Home Prices Will Net Positive this Year
The general consensus from industry experts is that home price appreciation will actually be positive for 2023. The graph below shows the latest 2023 year-end forecasts from six different organizations:
As you can see, all but one project nationally prices will net positive this year. That’s significant because it shows the majority are optimistic about home price growth.
If you’re still worried about the one red bar that shows an overall price drop for the year, think about this. The projection from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) is for only a slight decline. It’s not the big crash all the headlines called for. Plus, if you average all six forecasts together, the expectation is that prices will net somewhere around 3.3% positive growth for the year.
If these 6 organizations aren’t enough to convince you that prices won’t come tumbling down, here’s something else to consider. One of the six forecasts represented in the graph is the Home Price Expectation Survey (HPES) from Pulsenomics. It combines survey results from over 100 economists, investment strategists, and housing market analysts. The HPES found that the average from all 100 of those experts is 3.3% price growth for the year.
If you look back at the graph above, you’ll notice the blue average for the forecasts in this graph is also 3.3%. While individual forecasts may vary, both the HPES survey and the average of these forecasts provide the same projection. And 3.3% appreciation is a completely different story than prices falling.
Based on the Mt. Hood sales, year to date, compared to last year we are up 6% but that is only based on 119 sales so far this year. It doesn't seem like prices are up 6% to me based on the lack of activity of some pricing points.
Bottom Line
If you’re worried about home prices falling this year, let the experts reassure you. Based on the average of the latest forecasts, home prices will actually show positive growth this year. If you have questions about what’s happening with home prices in our local area, let’s connect.
Explaining Today’s Low Housing Supply
Friday, September 29, 2023
Some Highlights
- Wondering why the supply of homes for sale is limited today? There are a few factors at play.
- Lack of building over time, the mortgage rate lock-in effect, and people staying in their houses longer are three of the main reasons why supply is low.
- But real estate agents know exactly where to look and what to do to make your dream a reality. Let’s connect so you have an expert on your side to help you successfully navigate the market and find your next home.
Why Your House Didn't Sell
Thursday, September 28, 2023
Why Your House Didn’t Sell
If your listing expired and your house didn’t sell, you’re likely feeling a little frustrated. Not to mention, you're also probably wondering what went wrong. Here are three questions to think about as you figure out what to do next.
Did You Limit Access to Your House?
One of the biggest mistakes you can make when selling your house is restricting the days and times when potential buyers can tour it. Being flexible with your schedule is important when you're selling your house, even though it might feel a bit stressful to drop everything and leave when buyers want to see it. After all, minimal access means minimal exposure to buyers. ShowingTime advises:
“. . . do your best to be as flexible as possible when granting access to your house for showings.”
Sometimes, the most determined buyers might come from far away. Since they're traveling to see your house, they may not be able to change their plans easily if you only offer limited times for showings. So, try to make your house available as much as you can to accommodate them. It’s simple. If no one’s able to look at it, how’s it going to sell?
Did You Make Your House Stand Out?
When selling your house, the old saying matters: you never get a second chance to make a first impression. Putting in the work to make the exterior of your home look nice is just as important as how you stage it inside. Freshen up your landscaping to improve your home’s curb appeal so you can make an impact upfront. As an article from U.S. News says:
“After all, if people drive by, but aren’t interested enough to walk through the front door, you’ll never sell your house.”
But don’t let that impact stop at the front door. By removing personal items and reducing clutter inside, you give buyers more freedom to picture themselves in the home. Additionally, a new coat of paint or cleaning the floors can go a long way to freshening up a room.
Did You Price Your House Compellingly?
Setting the right price is extremely important when you're selling your house. Even though it might feel tempting to push the price higher to maximize your profit, overpricing can scare away buyers and make it hard to sell quickly. Business Insider notes:
“. . . the biggest mistake sellers make is overpricing their home.”
If your house is priced higher than others like it, it could make buyers lose interest. Pay attention to the feedback people give your agent during open houses and showings. If lots of people are saying the same thing, it might be a good idea to think about lowering the price.
For all these insights and more, rely on a trusted real estate agent. A great agent will offer expert advice on relisting your house with effective strategies to get it sold.
Bottom Line
It’s natural to feel disappointed when your listing has expired and your house didn’t sell. Let’s connect to figure out what happened and what to reconsider or change if you want to get your house back on the market.
The Return of Normal Seasonality for Home Price Appreciation on Mt. Hood
Tuesday, September 26, 2023
The Return of Normal Seasonality for Home Price Appreciation
If you’re thinking of making a move, one of the biggest questions you have right now is probably: what’s happening with home prices? Despite what you may be hearing in the news, nationally, home prices aren’t falling. It’s just that price growth is beginning to normalize. Here’s the context you need to really understand that trend.
In the housing market, there are predictable ebbs and flows that happen each year. It’s called seasonality. Spring is the peak homebuying season when the market is most active. That activity is typically still strong in the summer but begins to wane as the cooler months approach. Home prices follow along with seasonality because prices appreciate most when something is in high demand.
That’s why there’s a reliable long-term home price trend. The graph below uses data from Case-Shiller to show typical monthly home price movement from 1973 through 2022 (not adjusted, so you can see the seasonality):
As the data shows, at the beginning of the year, home prices grow, but not as much as they do in the spring and summer markets. That’s because the market is less active in January and February since fewer people move in the cooler months. As the market transitions into the peak homebuying season in the spring, activity ramps up, and home prices go up a lot more in response. Then, as fall and winter approach, activity eases again. Price growth slows, but still typically appreciates.
After several unusual ‘unicorn’ years, today’s higher mortgage rates helped usher in the first signs of the return of seasonality. As Selma Hepp, Chief Economist at CoreLogic, explains:
“High mortgage rates have slowed additional price surges, with monthly increases returning to regular seasonal averages. In other words, home prices are still growing but are in line with historic seasonal expectations.”
Why This Is So Important to Understand
In the coming months, you’re going to see the media talk more about home prices. In their coverage, you’ll likely see industry terms like these:
- Appreciation: when prices increase.
- Deceleration of appreciation: when prices continue to appreciate, but at a slower or more moderate pace.
- Depreciation: when prices decrease.
Don’t let the terminology confuse you or let any misleading headlines cause any unnecessary fear. The rapid pace of home price growth the market saw in recent years was unsustainable. It had to slow down at some point and that’s what we’re starting to see – deceleration of appreciation, not depreciation.
Remember, it’s normal to see home price growth slow down as the year goes on. And that definitely doesn’t mean home prices are falling. They’re just rising at a more moderate pace.
Bottom Line
While the headlines are generating fear and confusion on what’s happening with home prices, the truth is simple. Home price appreciation is returning to normal seasonality. If you have questions about what’s happening with prices in our local area, let’s connect.
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