Displaying blog entries 751-760 of 780
The National Association of Realtor's recent reports for the first quarter of 2009 are not too thrilling.
The first quarter showed a national decline of around 10.7% but from a year ago we are down 29% in Oregon.
Here is the median sale price chart:
Median sale prices are down around 13% from first quarter 2008.
According to the U.S. Censes Bureau the number of people moving from 2007 to 2008 declined to 11.9%. This is the lowest rate since they began keeping records in 1948.
Most movers were in the South and in the West.
Stats for 2008:
65% moved within the same county
18% moved to a different county within the same state
13% moved to a different state
3% moved to the U.S. from abroad
The latest numbers show home appreciation and home equity declines in the Portland Metro/Vancouver/Beaverton area. Here is the chart:
Look at the impact of 2006-2008, probably through refis and home equity loans. Yikes! Although this is a broad group and the Vancouver area with new construction has probably made these statistics worse than they really are, it's interesting. I am surprised at the median downpayment amount.
Naturally, as Portland goes, our area goes. I don't have the actual numbers for our Mt. Hood area.
Take a look at this information to see NAR, the National Association of Realtors, info based upon the Bureau of Census, and their predictions for home sales through the end of the year and into 2010
The numbers are out today. Oregon unemployment numbers hit the 10.8% figure. Portland metro is better off than several of the Central Oregon counties hitting 12 to 15% unemployment but this will affect the Mt. Hood area for sales. Less familes qualify for mortgages. Fewer buyers are in the market and it makes it harder to sell homes because we will be seeing more foreclosures due to unemployment.
Current inventory is at 143 properties for sale. Lets hope this stimulus plan gets stimulating soon so we can get this economy heading in the right direction.
Here is some interesting information on the impact of real estate for the state of Oregon compiled by the National Association of Realtors through the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
The real estate industry accounted for 17.1% of the gross state product in 2007. “The Industry” includes everything from construction, lending, title services, moving trucks, brokerage, appraisals and other related services.
When a home is sold, $25,767 worth of income is generated into those services. An additional $5,000 is generated from painting, buying new furniture and other auxiliary events.
Once this income is generated there is the multiplier effect with an additional $14,927. This money is generated by eating out, going to movies and sporting events, giving to charity and other spending events generating sales and income.
As additional home sales are conducted a new home is usually constructed- one for every eight home sales. According to Macroeconomic Advisors for NAR, when a new home is constructed it creates 1/8th of new home value generating approximately $35,788 into the economy.
It becomes obvious looking at these numbers that the economic impact of the housing crisis is huge for Oregon. The slowdown has caused Oregon unemployment numbers to be some of the top in the nation!
The Portland RMLS recently released sales information for February 2009. Here are the numbers:
Increasing inventory with 56 new listings on the market since January and 22 new on market in February alone. Closed sales at six shows an increasingly competitive market with not as many buyers active. Pending sales are down 61.5% comparing this same time from last year.
There's no doubt that increased unemployment, increased savings and the virtual disappearance of around 45-50% of individuals savings and wealth are having an impact on real estate.
There have been no sales of land, mutilfamily, or commercial properties since January.
Some sellers are making the price adjustments needed to compete and get their properties sold. It is shocking for many sellers to see what comparable properties are selling for as home equities rapidly shrink to adjust to this current economy.
Ok, so we are seeing effects of the recession all over the Mt. Hood area. Local retail shops are doing the best they can to stay afloat. We all try to purchase locally if possible to keep our fellow business owners out of the red.
Most notable recession fighters are the restaurants offering half price appetizers, two for ones, and early evening happy hour meals. It's working too. The bursts of winter snow storms have really helped the weekend traffic to our area. The mountain businesses were particularly hit hard due to no Thanksgiving snow and the chain of weather events that demolished the traditional winter break vacation hoardes that give our local businesses a huge shot in the arm.
How does this recession compare to others in our history? Take a look at these super charts I found online from the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis to see how this recession compares to others we've had in the past 80 years.
Is there light at the end of this tunnel? There are some major factors happening that are going to make buying a home on Mt. Hood VERY attractive this year. Recent reports coming from Moody's Economy are saying we may hit the bottom of this market by the end of 2009. This could be the first sighting of the bottom although history tells us, the bottom usually has already passed once we realize it.
The continual decline of prices, likely further reduced interest rates (some sources believe they will hit 4.5%), and the first time home buyer tax credit up to $8,000 will make this a premium buying opportunity. If you look at the larger metro declines averaged nationally, homes have lost around 25% and many areas are expected to continue to decline an additional 11% before stabilizing.
On the mountain, new listings for January and February have jumped up the inventory making an even more competitive atmosphere for home sellers. The increased inventory will make even more buying opportunities for purchasers who can make their move now.
For information about new listings or what is selling in today's market, give me a call or shoot me an email!
The Mt. Hood real estate market has always lagged national trends. The Portland metro market survived 2007 fairly well and in 2008 the trend hit the metro area and has since, as the stock market declined and job losses increased, has slowed substantially.
Zillow.com a popular data mongering site tells us prices declined another 11.6% nationally last year. Some parts of California and Florida have seen price declines of 50% or more! The 4th quarter of 2008 equaled the losses of all of 2007! Sources tell us the peak to trough, which have not hit yet but predictions are that it will be in the 4th quarter of 2009, our national values will have declined around 36 to 40%! Peak market hit in 2006 and we are edging towards the bottom we hope.
Did you know that approximately 20% of home sales last year were foreclosures? Markets which had the greatest run ups are of course having the greatest declines- Bend, Or. Stockton, Calif., Las Vegas, Nv. The Stockton market will have a peak to trough decline of around 67%!
Market conditions are local. The majority of our local market is second homes. We could see a longer recovery and bottoming in our market because of the lag time we always experience. We were last to the party and probably the last to leave making me believe we may be pushed into 2010 for stabilization. The stimulus package may help us climb out of this excessive inventory situation sooner than later though! In general the Portland homeowner equities are large and therefore they may have a quicker stabilizing than other large metro areas. Unemployment numbers may keep us behind though.
Displaying blog entries 751-760 of 780
