Recession on Mt. Hood?
Sales for Welches, Rhododendron, Government Camp and Brightwood in September hit a total of 10 accroding to the Market Action section of the RMLS, multiple listing service. Pending sales were down 33% and our total sales hit a decline of 11.5% for the year.
On the ground we are seeing an average sale price decline and the upper end of the market from $500,000 on up has disappeared and completely flattened. This comes from a combination of things. A massive inventory, high interest rates for jumbo loans, the credit crunch taking lots of buyers out of this market and slower economic times.
The chief economist for the National Association of Realtors, Lawrence Yun and others see a recession through at least the next three quarters. Some areas of the country have already corrected back to 2002 and 2003 pricing levels. There is no doubt about it, our area needs to make this correction too in order to reduce inventory levels.
The biggest hoop to jump through as a seller and agent is the bank appraisal. foreclosures will be used for comparables and these sale prices will quickly adjust the market downward. This is a difficult pill to swallow for many sellers who are still thinking in terms of 2004 and 2005 but reality will strike so the sooner the adjustment is made the quicker the market will equalize.
It's an incredible time to buy properties if you qualify. Rates are still very low and with the amount of inventory available it's a feast of opportunity. We are fortunate to live in one of the most desirable areas of the country with a predicted quicker recovery than most states. The increased population to Oregon alone makes this a no brainer opportunity.
