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Unemployment Stats and Projections

Thursday, May 7, 2020
by Liz Warren

Unemployment: Hope on the Horizon

Unemployment: Hope on the Horizon | MyKCM
 

Tomorrow, the unemployment rate for April 2020 will be released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. It will hit a peak this country has never seen before, with data representing real families and lives affected by this economic slowdown. The numbers will alarm us. There will be headlines and doomsday scenarios in the media. There is hope, though, that as businesses reopen, most people will become employed again soon.

Last month’s report indicated we initially lost over 700,000 jobs in this country, and the unemployment rate quickly rose to 4.4%. With the release of the new data, that number will climb even higher. Experts forecast this report will show somewhere between a 15% - 20% national unemployment rate, and some anticipate that number to be even greater (see graph below):Unemployment: Hope on the Horizon | MyKCM

What’s happened over the last several weeks? 

Here’s a breakdown of this spring’s weekly unemployment filings:Unemployment: Hope on the Horizon | MyKCMThe good news shown here indicates the number of additional unemployment claims has decreased week over week since the beginning of April. Carlos Rodriguez, CEO of Automatic Data Processing (ADP) says based on what he’s seeing:

“It’s possible that companies are already anticipating some kind of normalization, opening in certain states and starting to post jobs.” 

He goes on to say that this doesn’t mean all companies are hiring, but it could mean they are at the point where they’re not cutting jobs anymore. Let’s hope this trend continues.

What will the future bring?

Most experts predict that while unemployment is high right now, it won’t be that way for long. The length of unemployment during this crisis is projected to be significantly shorter than the duration seen in the Great Recession and the Great Depression.Unemployment: Hope on the Horizon | MyKCMWhile forecasts may be high, the numbers are trending down and the length of time isn’t expected to last forever.

Bottom Line

Don’t let the headlines rattle you. There’s hope coming as we start to safely reopen businesses throughout the country. Unemployment affects our families, our businesses, and our country. Our job is to rally around those impacted and do our part to support them through this time.

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Mt. Hood Water Supply

Wednesday, May 6, 2020
by Liz Warren

The Mt. Hood area appears to be in a moderate drought level for this coming summer. The National Weather Service has issued a drought report for the state of Oregon and in general it looks fairly serious for the state. Based on snowpack as of May 6, 2020 we are at 68% of normal levels based upon the OregonLive report from the Mt. Hood Snowtel test site. This info shows 40 years of Mt. Hood snowpack.

                   Download the full report of the Oregon Drought Report for 2020.

National Weather Service Drought Map for the state of Oregon

 

 

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Mt. Hood History App from Mt. Hood Territory

Friday, April 10, 2020
by Liz Warren

Mt. Hood Territory recently promoted a new app for you to explore some Mt. Hood history. You can learn much on each of these Heritage Trail Sites either by visiting the Mt. Hood Territory website or download the app to your phone as you drive along and visit these historic places. 

We celebrated the 175th anniversary of the Oregon Trail in 2018. This Oregon Trail section has just been added to the app including Summit Meadows, Tollgate, and Laurel Hill near Government Camp. 

Apps can be found here:

 

Apple Store  and Google Play

 

Mt. Hood Territory Heritage Trail

 

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What about the Mt. Hood Real Estate Market Today

Thursday, April 2, 2020
by Liz Warren

Looking to the Future: What the Experts Are Saying

Looking to the Future: What the Experts Are Saying | MyKCM
 

As our lives, our businesses, and the world we live in change day by day, we’re all left wondering how long this will last. How long will we feel the effects of the coronavirus? How deep will the impact go? The human toll may forever change families, but the economic impact will rebound with a cycle of downturn followed by economic expansion like we’ve seen play out in the U.S. economy many times over.

Here’s a look at what leading experts and current research indicate about the economic impact we’ll likely see as a result of the coronavirus. It starts with a forecast of U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

According to Investopedia:

“Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is the total monetary or market value of all the finished goods and services produced within a country's borders in a specific time period. As a broad measure of overall domestic production, it functions as a comprehensive scorecard of the country’s economic health.”

When looking at GDP (the measure of our country’s economic health), a survey of three leading financial institutions shows a projected sharp decline followed by a steep rebound in the second half of this year:Looking to the Future: What the Experts Are Saying | MyKCMA recent study from John Burns Consulting also notes that past pandemics have also created V-Shaped Economic Recoveries like the ones noted above, and they had minimal impact on housing prices. This certainly gives hope and optimism for what is to come as the crisis passes.

With this historical analysis in mind, many business owners are also optimistic for a bright economic return. A recent PricewaterhouseCoopers survey shows this confidence, noting 66% of surveyed business owners feel their companies will return to normal business rhythms within a month of the pandemic passing, and 90% feel they should be back to normal operation 1 to 3 months after:Looking to the Future: What the Experts Are Saying | MyKCMFrom expert financial institutions to business leaders across the country, we can clearly see that the anticipation of a quick return to normal once the current crisis subsides is not too far away. In essence, this won’t last forever, and we will get back to growth-mode. We’ve got this.

The Mt. Hood real estate market has seen a major slow down with few showings and sales. Only the most serious buyers will venture out and look for property. With the lockdown, most future sellers are taking this time to prepare their homes for sale once things are opening up again. I've had three sales fail with the probable underlying reason being the uncertainty of things right now.  The second quarter will take a heavy toll but by June, as the experts are predicting, things will take off like a rocket, hopefully!

Bottom Line

Lives and businesses are being impacted by the coronavirus, but experts do see a light at the end of the tunnel. As the economy slows down due to the health crisis, we can take guidance and advice from experts that this too will pass.

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What Experts Are Saying About This Market

Thursday, March 26, 2020
by Liz Warren

           

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Housing Market Graphs Showing Why This Will Not Be Like 2008

Tuesday, March 24, 2020
by Liz Warren

              

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Clackamas County Vacation Rental Update

Saturday, February 15, 2020
by Liz Warren

Good morning,

The Board of Commissioners continued the first public hearing on draft short-term rental regulations at its business meeting on Feb. 13.  After testimony was completed, commissioners had a number of questions and comments, and voted to table the topic rather than go ahead with a second public hearing, as previously planned. You can see the video of the meeting hereand read the most recent proposed regulations and background information here, beginning on page 5.

We will share information about any additional proposed changes to the regulations and upcoming meetings as they are set. Thank you.

Comments/questions? Check out www.clackamas.us/planning/str or contact Senior Planner Martha Fritzie at [email protected] or 503-742-4529.

Ellen Rogalin, Community Relations Specialist

Clackamas County Public & Government Affairs

Transportation & Development | Business & Community Services

503-742-4274  | 150 Beavercreek Road, Oregon City, OR 97045

Office hours:  9 am – 6 pm, Monday-Friday

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Great News for Renters Who Want to Buy a Home on Mt. Hood

Thursday, February 6, 2020
by Liz Warren

Great News for Renters Who Want to Buy a Home on Mt. Hood

   Down Payments, For Buyers, Rent vs. Buy

Rents in the United States have been skyrocketing since 2012. This has caused many renters to face a tremendous burden when juggling their housing expenses and the desire to save for a down payment at the same time. The recent stabilization of rental prices provides a great opportunity for renters to save more of their current income to put toward the purchase of a home.

Just last week the Joint Center of Housing Studies of Harvard University released the America’s Rental Housing 2020 Report. The results explain the financial challenges renters are experiencing today,

“Despite slowing demand and the continued strength of new construction, rental markets in the U.S. remain extremely tight. Vacancy rates are at decades-long lows, pushing up rents far faster than incomes. Both the number and share of cost-burdened renters are again on the rise, especially among middle-income households.”

According to the most recent Zillow Rent Index, which measures the estimated market-rate rent for all homes and apartments, the typical U.S. rent now stands at $1,600 per month. Here is a graph of how the index’s median rent values have climbed over the last eight years:Great News for Renters Who Want to Buy a Home | Simplifying The Market

Is Good News Coming?

There seems, however, to be some good news on the horizon. Four of the major rent indices are all reporting that rents are finally beginning to stabilize in all rental categories:

1. The Zillow Rent Index, linked above, only rose 2.6% over the last year.

2. RENTCafé’s research team also analyzes rent data across the 260 largest cities in the United States. The data on average rents comes directly from competitively rented, large-scale, multi-family properties (50+ units in size). Their 2019 Year-End Rent Report shows only a 3% increase in rents from last year, the slowest annual rise over the past 17 months.

3. The CoreLogic Single Family Rent Index reports on single-family only rental listing data in the Multiple Listing Service. Their latest index shows how overall year-over-year rent price increases have slowed since February 2016, when they peaked at 4.2%. They have stabilized around 3% since early 2019.

4. The Apartment List National Rent Report uses median rent statistics for recent movers taken from the Census Bureau American Community Survey. The 2020 report reveals that the year-over-year growth rate of 1.6% matches the rate at this time last year; it is just ahead of the 1.5% rate from January 2016. They also explain how “the past five years also saw stretches of notably faster rent growth. Year-over-year rent growth stood at 2.6% in January 2018, and in January 2016 it was 3.3%, more than double the current rate.”

It seems tenants are getting a breather from the rapid rent increases that have plagued them for almost a decade.

If you're looking for local monthly rentals on Mt. Hood, you might want to try these two resources:

Mountain Retreats at 503-622-3212 in Brightwood or Welches Mountain Properties at 503-622-4275 right in Welches.

Bottom Line

Rental expenses are beginning to moderate, and at the same time, average wages are increasing. That power combination may allow renters who dream of buying a home of their own an opportunity to save more money to put toward a down payment. That’s sensational news!

Give me a call or drop me an email if you would like more into on how to get a pre-approval for buying!

 
 
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Mt. Hood Vacation Rental Public Hearing Letter

Wednesday, February 5, 2020
by Liz Warren

On January 30, the County Board of Commissioners held its first public hearing on the proposed new regulations on short-term/vacation rentals in unincorporated Clackamas County.  Before the meeting the commissioners received the results of the online questionnaire and additional public comments submitted by email. 

 

After hearing testimony from 16 people, the board decided to extend the first public hearing until Thursday, Feb. 13, and asked to meet with staff to discuss the issues at a policy session.

 

That policy session was held yesterday afternoon.  After much discussion, the Board of Commissioners continued to support the draft regulations, but did ask staff to make the following changes:

  • Allow guest houses to be used as short-term rentals.  (Current county code prohibits guest houses – defined as an adjacent sleeping area without a kitchen or laundry – from being rented.)
  • Increase the maximum occupancy per short-term rental to two people multiplied by the number of sleeping areas plus four additional people.  (For example, a two-bedroom home would have a maximum occupancy of eight people.)  The total maximum occupancy for any short-term rental, even one with six or more sleeping areas, would remain at 15 people.
  • Allow owners of short-term rentals in unincorporated Clackamas County inside the Portland urban growth boundary (UGB) to use a dwelling or guest house on a lot adjacent to their primary residence to be used as a short-term rental. (The current proposed language requires a short-term rental in the UGB to be the owner’s primary residence or located on the same lot as the owner’s primary residence.)
  • Set fines for violation of short-term rental regulations similar to those for many other code enforcement violations -- $250 for first citation, $500 for second citation, $75/month administrative fee while the case is open, and additional charges for each day the violation continues. 

 

The updated draft regulations will be available online at www.clackamas.us/planning/str later this week.  As before, people who wish to comment are invited to send an email to Senior Planner Martha Fritzie at [email protected] or testify in person at the continuation of the first hearing or the second hearing.  Both hearings will be in the Board Meeting Room on the 4th floor of the Public Services Building, 2051 Kaen Road, Oregon City.

  • Continuation of first public hearing:  Board of Commissioners Business Meeting, 10 a.m., Thursday, Feb. 13
  • Second public hearing and Board action:  Board of Commissioners Business Meeting, 10 a.m., Thursday, Feb. 27

 

Thank you for your continued interest.

 

Ellen Rogalin, Community Relations Specialist

Clackamas County Public & Government Affairs

Transportation & Development | Business & Community Services

503-742-4274  | 150 Beavercreek Road, Oregon City, OR 97045

Office hours:  9 am – 6 pm, Monday-Friday

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When to sell on Mt. Hood

Wednesday, February 5, 2020
by Liz Warren

          

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Displaying blog entries 91-100 of 363

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