How Interest Rates Affect Your Monthly Payment
Friday, January 10, 2025
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Happy New Year!
Thursday, January 2, 2025
Market Summary November Sales 2024
HAPPY NEW YEAR!
As we head into 2025 here is a brief recap of some stats of the 2024 market. Many real estate sites report that this was a very difficult year with so little inventory and high interest rates. Since the beginning of the year the average market absorption is 2.7 months which is a seller’s market and unbalanced based on all pricing points.
Once I removed the sales for Colton which are mapped into our area through RMLS, we had a total of 136 sales for the year. Here’s a rundown of some of the stats that may be interesting:
13 forest cabins sold
102 detached single family homes sold
11 sales were over $1,000,000
19 sales were in Government Camp
14 condos sold and 9 were in Government Camp
8 sales were in Mt. Hood RV Village with tiny homes
Predictions for 2025 include more inventory coming on the market. We’ll see how that plays out. Currently our mountain market has 36 active listings. There are nine currently pending. So we will see how much the inventory goes up soon after the holidays.
Interest rates, low inventory, and consumer debt are slowing buyers down. Here are predictions for interest rates in 2025. Consensus is that rates will be slightly lower than 2024 but if inventory doesn’t increase, buyers may be paying the same as a todays rates because prices will be higher.
Consumer debt is another obstacle. People are tapped out which makes saving for a home tough.
Consumer Debt
Here are the statistics for November 2024’s market from RMLS.
Listed below are the ten sales for November.
December 2024 National Overview
U.S. Real Estate Overview
Note: October 2024 data below are the most recent released by the National Association of Realtors.
Existing-home sales rose in October, according to the National Association of REALTORS®. Sales improved in all four major U.S. regions. Year-over-year, sales elevated in three regions but were unchanged in the Northeast.
Total existing-home sales – completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops – expanded 3.4% from September to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.96 million in October. Year-over-year, sales progressed 2.9% (up from 3.85 million in October 2023).
"The worst of the downturn in home sales could be over, with increasing inventory leading to more transactions,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. "Additional job gains and continued economic growth appear assured, resulting in growing housing demand. However, for most first-time homebuyers, mortgage financing is critically important. While mortgage rates remain elevated, they are expected to stabilize.”
Total housing inventory registered at the end of October was 1.37 million units, up 0.7% from September and 19.1% from one year ago (1.15 million). Unsold inventory sits at a 4.2-month supply at the current sales pace, down from 4.3 months in September but up from 3.6 months in October 2023.
The median existing-home price for all housing types in October was $407,200, up 4.0% from one year ago ($391,600). All four U.S. regions registered price increases.
"The ongoing price gains mean increasing wealth for homeowners nationwide,” Yun added. "Additional inventory and more home building activity will help price increases moderate next year.”
According to the monthly REALTORS® Confidence Index, properties typically remained on the market for 29 days in October, up from 28 days in September and 23 days in October 2023.
First-time buyers were responsible for 27% of sales in October, up from 26% in September but down from 28% in October 2023. released in November 20234 – found that the annual share of first-time buyers was 32%. NAR's 2024 Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers – released earlier this month – found that the annual share of first-time buyers was 24%, the lowest ever recorded.
Cash sales accounted for 27% of transactions in October, down from 30% in September and 29% in October 2023.
Individual investors or second-home buyers, who make up many cash sales, purchased 17% of homes in October, up from 16% in September and 15% in October 2023.
Distressed sales – foreclosures and short sales – represented 2% of sales in October, unchanged from last month and the previous year.
According to Freddie Mac, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.78% as of November 14. That's down from 6.79% one week ago and 7.44% one year ago.
Regional Breakdown
Existing-home sales in the Northeast in October grew 2.2% from September to an annual rate of 470,000, identical to October 2023. The median price in the Northeast was $472,900, up 7.6% from last year.
In the Midwest, existing-home sales bounced 6.7% in October to an annual rate of 950,000, up 1.1% from the prior year. The median price in the Midwest was $305,300, up 7.2% from October 2023.
Existing-home sales in the South climbed 2.9% from September to an annual rate of 1.77 million in October, up 2.3% from one year before. The median price in the South was $361,200, up 0.9% from one year earlier.
In the West, existing-home sales increased 1.3% in October to an annual rate of 770,000, up 8.5% from a year ago. The median price in the West was $627,700, up 4.4% from October 2023.
Warranties for older homes
New homes come with warranties to protect the buyer in case of the unexpected. But what about existing homes? Fortunately, there are a number of companies today who offer warranties for existing homes. Sellers can now offer their buyers a level of assurance that was previously reserved for new construction, and buyers can buy with confidence! If you are in the market to buy or sell, ask us about the advantages of a home warranty. You might be surprised at how much protection is offered at a very reasonable price.
Seller strategy
Selling your home in today's market requires strategy and execution. Here are some tips to help sellers reduce their time on market while getting excellent value:
- Make it shine. Buyers are attracted to attractive homes. To make your home stand out, mow the lawn, rake the leaves, wash your windows, and clean the carpets. These small things can make a big difference.
- Remove clutter. Not only do clean homes show better, but tidy homes offer more to the imagination. One person's treasure is another person's trash. Removing unnecessary clutter will help potential buyers envision their own potential for the home.
- Consider removing art and personal keepsakes. This one is tough for certain people emotionally, but don't take it personally. Some savvy sellers go beyond de-cluttering and remove all (or most) of their personal artwork, family photos and personal mementos to make easier for potential buyers to imagine the home being theirs.
- Pay attention to the market. Work with your agent and price your home to sell. A competitively priced home is the one that sells first, and in this market that counts for a lot. Even in fast-moving markets in many parts of the United States, overpricing your home can lead to selling it for less or incurring greater holding costs than if you had priced the house appropriately in the first place. An experienced agent will help you arrive at the most advantageous price for your home.
These simple tips can help you sell your home and take advantage of our today's market. Please contact us if you have any questions about selling your home. We are here to help!
When Will Mortgage Rates Come Down?
Wednesday, December 4, 2024
When Will Mortgage Rates Come Down?
One of the biggest questions on everyone’s minds right now is: when will mortgage rates come down? After several years of rising rates and a lot of bouncing around in 2024, we’re all eager for some relief.
While no one can project where rates will go with complete accuracy or the exact timing, experts offer some insight into what we might see going into next year. Here’s what the latest forecasts show.
Mortgage Rates Are Expected To Ease and Stabilize in 2025
After a lot of volatility and uncertainty, the most updated forecasts suggest rates will start to stabilize over the next year, and should ease a bit compared to where they are right now (see graph below):
As Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist at the National Association of Realtors (NAR), says:
“While mortgage rates remain elevated, they are expected to stabilize.”
Key Factors That’ll Impact the Future of Mortgage Rates
It’s important to note that the timing and the pace of what happens with mortgage rates is one of the most challenging forecasts to make in the housing market. That’s because these forecasts hinge on a few key factors all lining up. So don’t be fooled, because while rates are expected to come down slightly, they’re going to be a moving target. And the ups and downs of ongoing economic drivers will likely stick around. Here’s a look at just a few of the things that’ll influence where they go from here:
- Inflation: If inflation cools, rates could dip a bit more. On the flip side, if inflation rises or remains stubbornly high, rates may stay elevated longer.
- Unemployment Rate: The unemployment rate also plays a significant role in upcoming decisions by the Federal Reserve (the Fed). And while the Fed doesn’t set mortgage rates, their actions do reflect what’s happening in the greater economy, which can have an impact.
- Government Policies: With the next administration set to take office in January, fiscal and monetary policies could also affect how financial markets respond and where rates go from here.
Remember, these forecasts are based on the best information available right now. As new economic data comes out, experts will revise their projections accordingly. So, don’t try to time the market based on these forecasts alone.
Instead, the best thing you can do is focus on what you can control right now. Work on improving your credit score, put away any extra cash for your down payment, and automate your savings. All of these things will help you reach your homeownership goals even faster.
And be sure to connect with a trusted agent and a lender, so you always have the latest updates – and an expert opinion on what that means for your move.
Bottom Line
If you’re planning to move and want to stay informed about where mortgage rates are heading, let’s connect.
Control the Controllables if you are Worried about Mortgage Rates
Wednesday, November 27, 2024
Control the Controllables If You’re Worried About Mortgage Rates
Chances are you’re hearing a lot about mortgage rates right now, and all you really want to hear is that they’re coming back down. And if you’ve seen headlines about the early November Federal Funds Rate cut by the Federal Reserve (The Fed), maybe you got hopeful mortgage rates would start to decline right away. Although some media sources may lead you to believe that the Fed’s actions determine mortgage rates, in reality, they don’t.
The truth is, the Fed, the job market, inflation, geopolitical changes, and a whole list of other economic factors influence mortgage rates, too. So, while recent actions from the Fed set the stage for mortgage rates to come down over time — it's going to be a gradual and, likely bumpy, process.
Here’s the best advice anyone can give you right now. While you may be tempted to wait for rates to fall, it’s really hard to try and time the market — there’s just too much that can have an impact. Instead, set yourself up for homebuying success by focusing on the factors you can control. Here’s what to prioritize if you’re looking to put your best foot forward.
Your Credit Score
Credit scores can play a big role in your mortgage rate. And the difference of just a few points can make a significant impact on your monthly payment. As an article from Bankrate explains:
“Your credit score is one of the most important factors lenders consider when you apply for a mortgage. Not just to qualify for the loan itself, but for the conditions: Typically, the higher your score, the lower the interest rates and better terms you’ll qualify for.”
With rates where they are today, maintaining a good credit score is one of the keys to getting the best rate possible. To find out where your credit score stands and what you can do to give it a boost, reach out to a trusted loan officer.
Your Loan Type
There are many types of loans, and each one offers different terms for qualified buyers. The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) says:
“There are several broad categories of mortgage loans, such as conventional, FHA, USDA, and VA loans. Lenders decide which products to offer, and loan types have different eligibility requirements. Rates can be significantly different depending on what loan type you choose. Talking to multiple lenders can help you better understand all of the options available to you.”
Work with your team of real estate professionals to see which loan types you may qualify for and figure out what will work best for you financially.
Your Loan Term
Just like with loan types, you have options when it comes to terms, or the length of your loan. As Freddie Mac says:
“When choosing the right home loan for you, it’s important to consider the loan term, which is the length of time it will take you to repay your loan before you fully own your home. Your loan term will affect your interest rate, monthly payment, and the total amount of interest you will pay over the life of the loan.”
Lenders typically offer mortgages in 15, 20, and 30-year terms. And which term you go with has a direct impact on your rate. Talk to your lender about which one is right for your situation.
Bottom Line
Remember, you can’t control what happens in the broader economy or when mortgage rates will come down. But there are actions you can take that could help you set yourself up for success.
Let’s connect to go over what you can now do that’ll make a difference when you’re ready to make your move.
How Much Does it Cost to Sell My House on Mt. Hood?
Thursday, October 10, 2024
How Much Does It Cost To Sell My House on Mt. Hood?
If you’re toying with the idea of selling your house, you’re probably wondering how much it’ll cost. To be honest, the final number will depend on several factors like the offer you accept, if you help with your buyer’s closing costs, how many repairs you tackle, and more.
So, to give you a ballpark of what to expect, here’s some information on a few of the expenses you’ll want to be ready for (see graph below):
But here’s something that puts those costs into perspective. Most homeowners today have a substantial amount of equity built up in their homes, and that means they stand to make significant gains when they sell. Chances are, you do too. This can help quickly recoup these selling costs. You may even have enough equity leftover to put some toward your next home purchase too.
Let’s dive into a few of the costs from the graph above, so you have a bit more context on what they include and where you may be able to save some money, when it makes sense.
Closing Costs and Commission
These are the fees you’ll pay at the closing table to cover various aspects of the sale. You’ll have your own closing costs and you may even offer to pay some of the buyer’s as a concession. As U.S. News Real Estate explains:
“Closing costs are fees that are paid to finalize the transaction and transfer ownership of the home to the buyer . . . Sellers can expect to pay 2% to 4% of the sale price of the home in fees and taxes on top of the agent commission. Based on the national median home sale price, this means that closing costs in 2023 for sellers are about $7,740 to $15,480. . .”
Taxes are going to vary by state and agent commissions depend on what you agree upon upfront. And keep in mind, that the numbers in the chart above are just an example, not exact figures. Not to mention, if you put money toward things like your property taxes, mortgage escrow, etc. as part of your current mortgage payments – there's a chance you’ll get a credit back at closing that can help offset some of these selling expenses.
Pre-Listing Inspection and Repairs
One optional step some sellers take is having a pre-listing inspection. It gives you an idea of what may pop up later on in the buyer’s inspection – because those are the items a buyer may ask you to toss in a credit (or concession) to cover later on.
This allows you to get a jump on any repairs and tackle them before you list, so your house is set up to impress from the start.
Again, if you want to skip this step, an agent can help. They’ll be able to give you advice on things like paint colors, small cosmetic repairs, what buyers are looking for, and whether it’s worth tackling anything else ahead of time. This will help make sure you’re spending money on things that are most likely to net you a solid return on your investment.
Home Staging
As inventory grows, you may want to take a few extra steps to make sure your house stands out. Staging is an optional way to make sure your house shows well. It can include bringing in rental furniture if the house is vacant or art to warm up the walls. Some staging can even be done virtually once the photos are taken. But, in general, how much does it cost? According to Bankrate:
“Home sellers typically pay somewhere between $782 and $2,817 in home staging costs . . . but the price tag can vary widely.”
If you want to skip this step, you could opt to lean on your agent’s advice for what looks good and what may feel cluttered. A great agent will suggest things like removing a chair to open up the flow of a room, laying down a rug to add warmth to a space, or taking down photographs to de-personalize strategic areas.
Why Leaning on an Agent Is Key
If you’re looking to cut down on your costs, you have options. But be careful of where you trim. You may be able to skip staging or a pre-listing inspection since those are optional, but you don’t want to skimp and sell without a pro.
An agent is your go-to expert throughout the transaction. They’ll offer customized advice every step of the way, including how to stage the house and what repairs to tackle. This can help you avoid hiring an outside stager or having to pay for a pre-listing inspection.
But that’s not the only way your agent adds value. They’ll also create tailored marketing and pricing strategies that’ll highlight the house’s best assets and any work you did to get the home show ready. And that can actually help your house sell for more in the long run.
Bottom Line
Want a better picture of what you should expect when you sell your house? Let’s have a conversation and walk through it together.
Mortgage Rates Drop to Lowest Level in over a Year and a Half
Tuesday, September 17, 2024
Mortgage Rates Drop to Lowest Level in over a Year and a Half
Mortgage rates have hit their lowest point in over a year and a half. And that’s big news if you’ve been sitting on the homebuying sidelines waiting for this moment.
Even a small decline in rates could help you get a better monthly payment than you would expect on your next home. And the drop that’s happened recently isn’t small. As Sam Khater, Chief Economist at Freddie Mac, says:
“Mortgage rates have fallen more than half a percent . . . and are at their lowest level since February 2023.”
But if you want to see it to really believe it, here’s how the math shakes out. Take a closer look at the impact on your monthly payment.
The chart below shows what a monthly payment (principal and interest) would look like on a $400K home loan if you purchased a house back in April (this year’s mortgage rate high), versus what it could look like if you buy a home now (see below):
Going from 7.5% just a few months ago to the low 6s has a big impact on your bottom line. In just a few months’ time, the anticipated monthly payment on a $400K loan has come down by over $370. That’s hundreds of dollars less per month.
Bottom Line
With the recent drop in mortgage rates, the purchasing power you have right now is better than it’s been in almost two years. Let’s talk about your options and how you can make the most of this moment you’ve been waiting for.
Today’s Biggest Housing Market Myths
Thursday, August 22, 2024
Today’s Biggest Housing Market Myths
Have you ever heard the phrase: don’t believe everything you hear? That’s especially true if you’re thinking about buying or selling a home in today’s housing market. There’s a lot of misinformation out there. And right now, making sure you have someone you can go to for trustworthy information is extra important.
If you partner with a real estate agent, they can clear up some common misconceptions and reassure you by backing them up with research-driven facts. Here are just a few misconceptions they can help disprove.
1. I’ll Get a Better Deal Once Prices Crash
If you’ve heard home prices are going to come crashing down, it’s time to look at what’s actually happening. While prices vary by local market, there’s a lot of data out there from numerous sources that shows a crash is not going to happen. Back in 2008, there was a dramatic oversupply of homes that led to prices crashing. Across the board, there’s an undersupply of homes for sale today. That makes this market a whole different scenario (see chart below):
So, if you think waiting will score you a deal, know that data shows there’s not a crash on the horizon, and waiting isn’t going to pay off the way you’d hoped.
2. I Won’t Be Able To Find Anything To Buy
If this nagging fear about finding the right home if you move is still holding you back, you probably haven’t talked with an expert real estate agent lately. Throughout the year, the supply of homes for sale has grown. Data from Realtor.com helps put this into context. While there are still fewer homes on the market than in a more normal year like 2019, inventory is still above where it was at this time last year (see graph below):
So, if you’re remembering all that media coverage about record-low supply during the pandemic, you can rest a bit easier. While the market isn’t back to normal just yet, inventory is moving in a healthier direction. And that means as your options improve, you can let go of this now outdated myth because finding a home to buy won’t feel quite so impossible anymore.
3. I Have To Wait Until I Have Enough for a 20% Down Payment
Many people still believe you need a 20% down payment to buy a home. To show just how widespread this myth is, Fannie Mae says:
“Approximately 90% of consumers overstate or don’t know the minimum required down payment for a typical mortgage.”
And if you look at the data from the National Association of Realtors (NAR), you can see the typical homeowner isn’t putting down as much as you might expect (see graph below):
First-time homebuyers are typically only putting down 6%. That’s far less than the 20% so many people think they need. And if you’re looking at that graph and you’re more focused on how the number for repeat buyers is closer to 20%, here’s what you need to realize. That’s only because they have so much equity built up in their current house that can be used to make a larger down payment for their next move.
This goes to show you don’t have to put 20% down, unless it’s specified by your loan type or lender. Many people put down a lot less. Not to mention, depending on the type of home loan you get, you may only need to put 3.5% or even 0% down. So, if you’re buying your first home, you likely don’t need nearly as much for your down payment as you may think.
An Agent’s Role in Fighting Misconceptions
If you put your move on pause because you heard one or more of these myths yourself, it’s time to talk to a trusted agent. An expert agent has more data and the facts, just like this, to reassure you and help break through any misconceptions that may be holding you back.
Bottom Line
If you have questions about what you’re hearing or reading, let’s connect. You deserve to have someone you can trust to get the facts.
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