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The One Thing Every Homeowner Needs To Know About a Recession

The One Thing Every Homeowner Needs To Know About a Recession | MyKCM
 

A recession does not equal a housing crisis. That’s the one thing that every homeowner today needs to know. Everywhere you look, experts are warning we could be heading toward a recession, and if true, an economic slowdown doesn’t mean homes will lose value.

The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) defines a recession this way:

“A recession is a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, normally visible in production, employment, and other indicators. A recession begins when the economy reaches a peak of economic activity and ends when the economy reaches its trough. Between trough and peak, the economy is in an expansion.”

To help show that home prices don’t fall every time there’s a recession, take a look at the historical data. There have been six recessions in this country over the past four decades. As the graph below shows, looking at the recessions going all the way back to the 1980s, home prices appreciated four times and depreciated only two times. So, historically, there’s proof that when the economy slows down, it doesn’t mean home values will fall or depreciate.

The One Thing Every Homeowner Needs To Know About a Recession | MyKCM

The first occasion on the graph when home values depreciated was in the early 1990s when home prices dropped by less than 2%. It happened again during the housing crisis in 2008 when home values declined by almost 20%. Most people vividly remember the housing crisis in 2008 and think if we were to fall into a recession that we’d repeat what happened then. But this housing market isn’t a bubble that’s about to burst. The fundamentals are very different today than they were in 2008. So, we shouldn’t assume we’re heading down the same path.

Bottom Line

We’re not in a recession in this country, but if one is coming, it doesn’t mean homes will lose value. History proves a recession doesn’t equal a housing crisis.

National Wildfire Awareness Month

by Liz Warren

Although it's hard to believe as we sit under storm clouds and record breaking rain we are approaching our fire season on Mt. Hood. After power shut downs from past fires locals are way more prepared for what will come our way. I don't know any one who doesn't own a generator. This article from Fox 12 details new rules for power shut down notifications during wildfires. 

Here are tips directly from the FEMA website:

The United States Fire Administration promotes simple ways to prevent a fire from affecting your home and community, including:

  • Reduce amount of flammable materials and brush that can burn around your home by removing pine needles, dry leaves or other highly flammable materials.
  • Protect your roof: Trim branches that overhang your home and remove any leaves, needles, and sticks from your roof and gutters. 
  • Move wood piles and small propane tanks away from your (and your neighbor’s) home, 30 feet or more is best.
  • Embers from a burning fire can get under an unprotected porch or through vents. To prevent this, install a wire mesh screen with openings no larger than 1/8th inch.  

Be prepared in case you need to evacuate:

  • Keep important documents in a fireproof safe, on a USB drive, or store password protected documents online.
  • Check your home insurance to make sure your policy protects your current home value and includes wildfires.
  • Give yourself time and evacuate early if possible. If you can’t leave, designate a room that can be closed off from outside air in case air conditions become hazardous.
  • Make your household emergency plan and go-kit.  When making plans, don’t forget the needs of pets.  Make sure that you know more than one way out of your neighborhood.
  • Sign up to receive emergency alerts and notices for your community.
  • Ready.gov offers vital safety tips on what to do before, during, and after a wildfire.

Another important thing to consider is buying flood insurance. After a wildfire, flood risk increases due to the inability of charred vegetation and soil to absorb water. Rainstorms after a wildfire lead to increased runoff down slopes and into channels, streams, and rivers.  Flooding after fire can be fast, severe, and include mudflows as runoff picks up debris, ash, and sediment from the burn scar. Flood insurance can protect property owners from catastrophic financial impacts of flooding following a wildfire.

Wildfires can develop and spread quickly, leaving little time to get somewhere safe. Know what to do to keep yourself, your family, and your pets safe and take steps now to protect your future.

Last updated March 17, 2021

Mortgage Rates Impact on Your Mt. Hood Purchase

by Liz Warren

How Today’s Mortgage Rates Impact Your Mt. Hood  Purchase

How Today’s Mortgage Rates Impact Your Home Purchase | MyKCM
 

If you’re planning to buy a home, it’s critical to understand the relationship between mortgage rates and your purchasing power. Purchasing power is the amount of home you can afford to buy that’s within your financial reach. Mortgage rates directly impact the monthly payment you’ll have on the home you purchase. So, when rates rise, so does the monthly payment you’re able to lock in on your home loan. In a rising-rate environment like we’re in today, that could limit your future purchasing power.

Today, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate is above 5%, and in the near term, experts say that’ll likely go up in the months ahead. You have the opportunity to get ahead of that increase if you buy now before that impacts your purchasing power.

Mortgage Rates Play a Large Role in Your Home Search

The chart below can help you understand the general relationship between mortgage rates and a typical monthly mortgage payment within a range of loan amounts. Let’s say your budget allows for a monthly mortgage payment in the $2,100-$2,200 range. The green in the chart indicates a payment within that range, while the red is a payment that exceeds it (see chart below):

How Today’s Mortgage Rates Impact Your Home Purchase | MyKCM

As the chart shows, you’re more likely to exceed your target payment range as mortgage rates increase unless you pursue a lower home loan amount. If you’re ready to buy a home, use this as your motivation to purchase now so you can get ahead of rising rates before you have to make the decision to decrease what you borrow in order to stay comfortably within your budget.

Work with Trusted Advisors To Know Your Budget and Make a Plan

It’s critical to keep your budget top of mind as you’re searching for a home. Danielle Hale, Chief Economist at realtor.com, puts it best, advising that buyers should:

Get preapproved with where rates are today, but also consider what would happen if rates were to go up, say another quarter of a point, . . . Know what that would do to your monthly costs and how comfortable you are with that, so that if rates do move higher, you already know how you need to adjust in response.”

No matter what, the best strategy is to work with your real estate advisor and a trusted lender to create a plan that takes rising mortgage rates into consideration. Together, you can look at your budget based on where rates are today and craft a strategy so you’re ready to adjust as rates change.

Bottom Line

Even small increases in mortgage rates can impact your purchasing power. If you’re in the process of buying a home, it’s more important than ever to have a strong plan. Let’s connect so you have a trusted real estate advisor and a lender on your side who can help you strategize to achieve your dream of homeownership this season.

A recent article in Willamette Week states home prices in Rhododendron were up 47% over last year. Read article here.   The article is about folks moving out of Portland for less expensive housing so they can qualify to buy. This seems to be happening everywhere. Notice there are three of our burgs on Mt. Hood listed in the chart below. These numbers are coming from Zillow based on comments in the article. 

Willamette Week Stats from article May 2022

Recent RMLS statistics for the Mt. Hood area in March 2022 says our year over year for the entire area including Government Camp was 37.3%. If you add in another 10% for the 2020-2021 season, I can see where these numbers are coming from. I thought the Rhododendron comment was a little misleading under the main heading. These stats are for two years of sales vs. one year of sales. 

Bear Alert from Oregon State Fish and Wildlife

by Liz Warren

Bears are waking up from hibernation and are becoming active in your area. At this time of year, these hungry bears will be trying to get into every food source they can, including garbage, old grills, birdfeeders, and anything else that smells like food. Take steps to avoid conflict with bears by removing bird feeders and securing attractants. A bear's strongest sense is smell and they can pick up a scent from over a mile away.

Don’t reward bears with easily available food (including birdseed), liquids, garbage and scraps from a barbeque or grill. Intentional or unintentional feeding of bears teaches them to approach homes and people. This is dangerous for humans and bears. Keep Bears Wild by following the BearWise basics above and sharing this information with your neighbors. A community effort will be more effective in preventing conflicts with bears. For more information on living with bears visit https://www.dfw.state.or.us/wildlife/living_with/black_bears.asp

Today’s Home Price Appreciation Is Great News for Existing Homeowners On Mt. Hood

Today’s Home Price Appreciation Is Great News for Existing Homeowners | MyKCM
 

If you’re planning to sell your home this season, rising prices are great news for you. But it’s important to understand why prices are rising to begin with. One major factor is supply and demand.

In any industry, when there are more buyers for an item than there are of that item available, prices naturally rise. In those situations, buyers are willing to pay more to get the product or service they’re looking for when options are scarce. And that’s exactly what’s happening in the current real estate market.

Selma Hepp, Executive, Research & Insights and Deputy Chief Economist at CoreLogic, puts it like this:

With so few homes, buyers are once again left with fierce competition that’s driving the share of homes that sold over the listing price up to 66% . . . With the continued imbalance between supply and demand, home prices are likely to have another year of strong gains and are expected to average about 10% growth for the year.”

Because it will take some time for housing supply to increase, experts believe prices will continue rising. The latest Home Price Expectations Survey forecasts what will happen with home prices over the next 5 years. As the graph below shows, while the rate of appreciation will moderate over the next few years, prices will continue rising through 2026:

Today’s Home Price Appreciation Is Great News for Existing Homeowners | MyKCM

What This Means When You Sell Your House

If you’re a homeowner, the projection for continued price appreciation this year opens up an opportunity to move. That’s because it may give your equity a major boost. Equity is the difference between what you owe on your house and its market value. The amount of equity you have increases as you make your monthly payments and as rising home prices drive up the market value for your home.

Growing equity is a powerful tool for homeowners. When you sell your house, the equity you’ve built comes back to you in the sale. That money could be enough to cover some (if not all) of your down payment on your next home.

Of course, if you want to know how much equity you have in your current house, it’s crucial to work with a real estate professional. They follow current market trends and can help you understand your home’s value when you’re ready to sell.

What This Means for Your Next Purchase

But today’s rising home values aren’t just good news if you’re ready to sell. Because price appreciation is forecast to continue in the years ahead, you can rest assured your next home will be an investment that should grow in value with time. That’s one of several reasons why real estate has been rated the best investment in a recent Gallup poll.

Bottom Line

If you’re weighing whether or not you should sell your house this season, know rising home values may be opening up an opportunity to use equity to fuel your move. Let’s connect so you can find out how much your home is worth and to learn more about all the benefits you have in today’s market.

          

Give Your Curb Appeal a Boost Before You Sell

by Liz Warren

 

Give Your Curb Appeal a Boost Before You Sell [INFOGRAPHIC] | MyKCM
 

Some Highlights

  • If you’re thinking about selling your house this season, focusing on a few quick and easy updates outside can help your home look its best.
  • 78% of real estate agents polled say poor landscaping affects property values. As a seller, that means your yard could impact your bottom line.
  • When getting your house ready to sell, let’s connect to discuss what you should do to make sure your house shows well and catches the eyes of more potential buyers.

Selling in a Seller's Market on Mt. Hood

by Liz Warren

What You Need To Know About Selling in a Sellers’ Market on Mt. Hood

What You Need To Know About Selling in a Sellers' Market | MyKCM
 

Even if you haven’t been following real estate news, you’ve likely heard about the current sellers’ market. That’s because there’s a lot of talk about how strong market conditions are for people who want to sell their houses. But if you’re thinking about listing your house, you probably want to know: what does being in a sellers’ market really mean?

What Is a Sellers’ Market?

The latest Existing Home Sales Report from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) shows housing supply is still very low. There’s a 2-month supply of homes at the current sales pace.

Historically, a 6-month supply is necessary for a normal or neutral market where there are enough homes available for active buyers. That puts today deep in sellers’ market territory (see graph below):

What You Need To Know About Selling in a Sellers' Market | MyKCM

What Does This Mean for You When You Sell?

When the supply of houses for sale is as low as it is right now, it’s much harder for buyers to find homes to purchase. That creates increased competition among purchasers which can lead to more bidding wars. And if buyers know they may be entering a bidding war, they’re going to do their best to submit a very attractive offer upfront. This could drive the final price of your house up.

And because mortgage rates and home prices are climbing, serious buyers are motivated to make their purchase soon, before those two things rise further. That means, if you put your house on the market while supply is still low, it will likely get a lot of attention from competitive buyers.

Bottom Line

The current real estate market has incredible opportunities for homeowners looking to make a move. Listing your house this season means you’ll be in front of serious buyers who are ready to buy. Let’s connect so you can jumpstart the selling process.

What Experts Are Saying About Interest Rates

by Liz Warren

        

Displaying blog entries 271-280 of 1881

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