Foreclosure Numbers Today are Nothing like 2008!
Tuesday, May 9, 2023
Add Comment
Real Estate Information Archive
Blog
Pages:
Displaying blog entries 171-180 of 546
Why Today’s Housing Market Is Not About To Crash
Tuesday, May 9, 2023
Why Today’s Housing Market Is Not About To Crash
There’s been some concern lately that the housing market is headed for a crash. And given some of the affordability challenges in the housing market, along with a lot of recession talk in the media, it’s easy enough to understand why that worry has come up.
But the data clearly shows today’s market is very different than it was before the housing crash in 2008. Rest assured, this isn’t a repeat of what happened back then. Here’s why.
It’s Harder To Get a Loan Now
It was much easier to get a home loan during the lead-up to the 2008 housing crisis than it is today. Back then, banks had different lending standards, making it easy for just about anyone to qualify for a home loan or refinance an existing one. As a result, lending institutions took on much greater risk in both the person and the mortgage products offered. That led to mass defaults, foreclosures, and falling prices.
Things are different today as purchasers face increasingly higher standards from mortgage companies. The graph below uses data from the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) to show this difference. The lower the number, the harder it is to get a mortgage. The higher the number, the easier it is.
Unemployment Recovered Faster This Time
While the pandemic caused unemployment to spike over the last couple of years, the jobless rate has already recovered back to pre-pandemic levels (see the blue line in the graph below). Things were different during the Great Recession as a large number of people stayed unemployed for a much longer period of time (see the red in the graph below):
Here’s how the quick job recovery this time helps the housing market. Because so many people are employed today, there’s less risk of homeowners facing hardship and defaulting on their loans. This helps put today’s housing market on stronger footing and reduces the risk of more foreclosures coming onto the market.
There Are Far Fewer Homes for Sale Today
There were also too many homes for sale during the housing crisis (many of which were short sales and foreclosures), and that caused prices to fall dramatically. Today, there’s a shortage of inventory available overall, primarily due to years of underbuilding homes.
The graph below uses data from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) and the Federal Reserve to show how the months’ supply of homes available now compares to the crash. Today, unsold inventory sits at just a 2.6-months’ supply. There just isn’t enough inventory on the market for home prices to come crashing down like they did in 2008.
Equity Levels Are Near Record Highs
That low inventory of homes for sale helped keep upward pressure on home prices over the course of the pandemic. As a result, homeowners today have near-record amounts of equity (see graph below):
And, that equity puts them in a much stronger position compared to the Great Recession. Molly Boesel, Principal Economist at CoreLogic, explains:
“Most homeowners are well positioned to weather a shallow recession. More than a decade of home price increases has given homeowners record amounts of equity, which protects them from foreclosure should they fall behind on their mortgage payments.”
Bottom Line
The graphs above should ease any fears you may have that today’s housing market is headed for a crash. The most current data clearly shows that today’s market is nothing like it was last time.
What Experts are Saying About the Mt. Hood Spring Housing Market?
Tuesday, April 25, 2023
What Are the Experts Saying About the Spring Housing Market?
The housing market’s been going through a lot of change lately, and there’s been uncertainty surrounding what will happen this spring. You may be wondering if more homes will go on the market, what’s next with home prices and mortgage rates, or what the best advice is for someone in your position right now.
Here’s what industry experts are saying right now about the spring housing market and what it means for you:
Selma Hepp, Chief Economist, CoreLogic:
“We see more competition among buyers . . . Housing supply also tends to grow during the spring months. And this is also the time of year when relatively more migration happens, as people graduate and move elsewhere looking for jobs.”
Greg McBride, Chief Financial Analyst, Bankrate:
“I don’t expect big moves in prices in the span of a month, but like the flower buds of spring, the housing market is showing signs of improvement. A pick up in activity with inventory still low does bode well for home prices.”
Rick Sharga, Founder and CEO, CJ Patrick Company:
“If you can find a home you love and can afford at today’s prices, don’t wait. Home prices in most of the country are unlikely to crash, and mortgage rates will only come down very gradually if they decline at all this year.”
Jeff Tucker, Senior Economist, Zillow:
“The market is still much friendlier this spring for buyers who can overcome affordability hurdles, but buyers are going to see more competition than they might expect because there are not many homes on the market to go around. New listings are increasing, which they almost always do this time of year, but not nearly as quickly as usual.”
Bottom Line
If you’re thinking about selling your house, this spring’s a great time to do so while inventory is still so low. And if you’re in a good position to buy, lean on your team of expert advisors for the best advice. Whatever your plans, let’s connect to make sure you’re able to navigate the spring housing market with confidence.
New District Ranger at the Mt. Hood National Forest
Monday, April 24, 2023
Here's the latest news from the Mt. Hood National Forest! New District Ranger
Mt. Hood National Forest
Forest Service News Release
Mt. Hood Welcomes New District Ranger
Mt. Hood National Forest is pleased to announce Nicholas Seibel as the new Zigzag District Ranger, beginning May 8. The Zigzag Ranger District spans 250,000 acres on the west side of the Forest, including busy campgrounds and trails, ski areas, and summer cabins. The district also includes most of Bull Run Watershed, which provides drinking water to about a million Oregonians.
“Zigzag Ranger District is receiving national attention and investment for Forest Service priorities,” said Mt. Hood National Forest Supervisor Meta Loftsgaarden. “Nick has a wealth of experience leading and collaborating with teams during complex projects. He’s the right person to help lead the implementation of these key priorities for both the Forest and our communities.”
Seibel is a retired combat controller in the U.S. Air Force, where he served for 24 years. During his military career, Seibel deployed to combat zones seven times, taking part in numerous high-risk missions providing support to both air and ground forces.
Seibel has extensive experience in emergency management, including leading task forces during national emergencies such as hurricanes Harvey and Irma. As a member of Oregon Air National Guard Seibel has come to know Mt. Hood well, leading and participating in search and recovery missions to locate and rescue lost or injured hikers.
Seibel lives in West Linn with his wife, son, and their two dogs. The Seibel family enjoys spending time together in the great outdoors, and they frequently explore Mt. Hood skiing, hiking, and camping.
“As someone who has always had a deep love and appreciation for the outdoors, I am thrilled to join the Zigzag Ranger District and Mt. Hood community,” said Seibel. “The opportunity to be a part of a team that stewards the natural beauty of this stunning mountainous region while supporting outdoor recreation is inspiring and fulfilling.”
Seibel succeeds previous District Ranger Bill Westbrook, who retired in late winter after 16 years in Zigzag.
Mt. Hood National Forest Opens for Woodcutting!
Tuesday, April 18, 2023
Great News for folks who like to cut their own firewood! The Mt. Hood National Forest has just released this info. Don't forget to get your permit. You can cut up to six cords of wood annually!
|
||||||||||||||||||||||
Trying To Buy a Home on Mt. Hood? Hang in There.
Thursday, April 6, 2023
We’re still in a sellers’ market. And if you’re looking to buy a home, that means you’re likely facing some unique challenges, like difficulty finding a home and volatile mortgage rates. But keep in mind, there are some benefits to being a buyer in today’s market that give you good reason to stick with your search. Here are a few of them.
Long-Term Benefits Outweigh Short-Term Challenges
Owning a home grows your net worth – and since building that wealth takes time, it makes sense to start as soon as you can. If you wait to buy and keep renting, you’ll miss out on those monthly housing payments going toward your home equity. Freddie Mac puts it this way:
“Homeownership not only builds a sense of pride and accomplishment, but it’s also an important step toward achieving long-term financial stability.”
The key there is long-term because the financial benefits homeownership provides, like home value appreciation and equity, grow over time. Those benefits are worth the short-term challenges today’s sellers’ market presents.
Mortgage Rates Are Constantly Changing
Mortgage rates have been hovering around 6.5% over the last several months. However, as Sam Khater, Chief Economist at Freddie Mac, notes, they’ve been coming down some recently:
“Economic uncertainty continues to bring mortgage rates down. Over the last several weeks, declining rates have brought borrowers back to the market . . .”
Lower mortgage rates improve your purchasing power when you buy, and that can help make homeownership more affordable. Hannah Jones, Economic Data Analyst at realtor.com, explains:
“As we move into the spring buying season, mortgage rates have ticked lower, a welcomed sign of progress towards affordability.”
The recent drop in mortgage rates is good news if you couldn’t afford to buy a home when they peaked.
Home Prices Will Increase
According to the Home Price Expectation Survey, which polls over 100 real estate experts, home values will go up steadily over the next few years after a slight decline this year (see graph below):
Rising home prices in the coming years means two things for you as a buyer:
- Waiting to buy a home could mean it’ll become more expensive to do so.
- Buying now means the value of your home, and your net worth, will likely grow over time.
Bottom Line
If you’ve been trying to buy a home, hang in there. Mortgage rates have ticked down some recently, home prices are forecast to increase in the coming years, and the long-term benefits of homeownership outweigh many of the short-term challenges.
Why Aren’t Home Prices Crashing on Mt. Hood?
Wednesday, April 5, 2023
Why Aren’t Home Prices Crashing on Mt. Hood?
There have been a lot of shifts in the housing market recently. Mortgage rates rose dramatically last year, impacting many people’s ability to buy a home. And after several years of rapid price appreciation, home prices finally peaked last summer. These changes led to a rise in headlines saying prices would end up crashing.
Even though we’re no longer seeing the buyer frenzy that drove home values up during the pandemic, prices have been relatively flat at the national level. Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist at the National Association of Realtors (NAR), doesn’t expect that to change:
“[Home prices will be steady in most parts of the country with a minor change in the national median home price.”
You might think sellers would have to lower prices to attract buyers in today’s market, and that’s part of why some may have been waiting for prices to come crashing down. But there’s another factor at play – low inventory. And according to Yun, that’s limiting just how low prices will go:
“We simply don’t have enough inventory. Will some markets see a price decline? Yes. [But] with the supply not being there, the repeat of a 30 percent price decline is highly, highly unlikely.”
As you can see in the graph below, we’ve been at or near record-low inventory levels for a few years now.
That lack of available homes on the market is putting upward pressure on prices. Bankrate puts it like this:
“This ongoing lack of inventory explains why many buyers still have little choice but to bid up prices. And it also indicates that the supply-and-demand equation simply won’t allow a price crash in the near future.”
If more homes don’t come to the market, a lack of supply will keep prices from crashing, and, according to industry expert Rick Sharga, inventory isn’t likely to rise significantly this year:
“I believe that we’re likely to see low inventory continue to vex the housing market throughout 2023.”
Sellers are under no pressure to move since they have plenty of equity right now. That equity acts as a cushion for homeowners, lowering the chances of distressed sales like foreclosures and short sales. And with many homeowners locked into low mortgage rates, that equity cushion isn’t going anywhere soon.
With so few homes available for sale today, it’s important to work with a trusted real estate agent who understands your local area and can navigate the current market volatility.
Bottom Line
A lot of people expected prices would crash this year thanks to low buyer demand, but that isn’t happening. Why? There aren’t enough homes for sale. If you’re thinking about moving this spring, let’s connect.
We're in a Mt. Hood Seller's Market and What Does That Mean?
Thursday, March 30, 2023
We’re in a Mt. Hood Sellers’ Market. What Does That Mean?
Even though activity in the housing market has slowed from the frenzy we saw over a year ago, today’s low supply of homes for sale is still a sellers’ market. But what does that really mean? And why are conditions today so good if you want to list your house?
It starts with the number of homes available for sale. The latest Existing Home Sales Report from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) shows housing supply is still astonishingly low. Today, we have a 2.6-month supply of homes at the current sales pace. Historically, a 6-month supply is necessary for a ‘normal’ or ‘neutral’ market in which there are enough homes available for active buyers (see graph below):
What Does This Mean for You?
When the supply of homes for sale is as low as it is right now, it’s much harder for buyers to find one to purchase. That creates increased competition among purchasers and keeps upward pressure on prices. And if buyers know they’re not the only one interested in a home, they’re going to do their best to submit a very attractive offer. As this happens, sellers are positioned to negotiate deals that meet their ideal terms. Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist at NAR, says:
“Inventory levels are still at historic lows. Consequently, multiple offers are returning on a good number of properties.”
Right now, there are still buyers who are ready, willing, and able to purchase a home. If you list your house right now in good condition and at the right price, it could get a lot of attention from competitive buyers.
Bottom Line
Today’s sellers’ market holds great opportunities for homeowners ready to make a move. Listing your house now will maximize your exposure to serious, competitive buyers. Let’s connect to discuss how to jumpstart the selling process.
Ready for the Spring Mt. Hood Real Estate Market?
Monday, March 27, 2023
Get Ready: The Best Time To List Your House Is Almost Here
If you’re thinking about selling this spring, it’s time to get moving – the best week to list your house is fast approaching.
Experts at realtor.com looked at seasonal trends from recent years (excluding 2020 as an uncharacteristic year due to the onset of the pandemic) and determined the ideal week to list a house this year:
“Home sellers on the fence waiting for that perfect moment to sell should start preparations, because the best time to list a home in 2023 is approaching quickly. The week of April 16-22 is expected to have the ideal balance of housing market conditions that favor home sellers, more so than any other week in the year.”
If you’ve been waiting for the best time to sell, this is your chance. But remember, before you put your house on the market, you’ve got to get it ready. And if you haven’t started that process yet, you’ll need to move quickly. Here’s what you should keep in mind.
Work with an Agent To Determine Which Updates To Make
Start by prioritizing which updates you’ll make. In February, realtor.com asked more than 1,200 recent or potential home sellers what updates they ended up making to their house before listing it (see graph below):
As you can see, the most common answers included landscaping and painting. Work with a trusted real estate agent to determine what projects make the most sense for your goals and local market.
If Possible, Plan To Have Your House Staged
Once you’ve made any necessary repairs and updates to your house, consider having it staged. According to the National Association of Realtors (NAR), 82% of buyers’ agents said staging a home made it easier for a buyer to visualize the property as a future home. Additionally, almost half of buyers’ agents said home staging had an effect on most buyers’ view of the home in general. Homes that are staged typically sell faster and for a higher price because they help potential buyers more easily picture their new life in the house.
Bottom Line
Are you ready to sell this spring? Let’s connect to plan your next steps. You can start by making a checklist of what you think your house needs to get ready. Then, we can work together to prioritize your list and move forward together.
Pages:
Displaying blog entries 171-180 of 546
Syndication
Categories
- (0)
- Government Camp Real Estate (792)
- Mt Hood Inspiration-Morning Coffee (256)
- Mt. Hood 1031 Tax Exchanges (80)
- Mt. Hood Economic Conditions (859)
- Mt. Hood Local Events (372)
- Mt. Hood Mortgage and Financing Information (435)
- Mt. Hood National Forest Cabins (546)
- Mt. Hood New Properties on Market (312)
- Mt. Hood Sales Information (361)
